China's Population Shrinks by 1.4 Million in 2025, Birth Rate Hits New Low
China's population declined by 1.39 million in 2025 with a record-low birth rate, as the total fertility rate fell below 1.0 and deaths outnumbered births by the widest margin yet.
National Bureau of Statistics Reports Third Consecutive Year of Decline
China's population fell by 1.39 million in 2025 to 1.4036 billion, the National Bureau of Statistics reported on January 12, 2026. The annual decline accelerated from 2.08 million in 2024, driven by a record-low 6.77 births per 1,000 people — the lowest fertility rate in the People's Republic's history. Deaths outnumbered births by the widest margin yet, with 11.28 million deaths against 9.50 million births.
The total fertility rate fell to an estimated 0.97 children per woman, below South Korea's 0.72 but far under the 2.1 replacement level. The National Bureau's chief statistician Kang Yi acknowledged the figures were "concerning" but said the government's pro-natalist policies "require time to take effect."
Regional Variations
Northeast China's Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning provinces recorded the steepest declines, with birth rates below 4 per 1,000 — comparable to the world's lowest-fertility nations. Guangdong province, China's most populous with 127 million residents, maintained a relatively higher birth rate of 8.3 per 1,000 due to its younger demographic profile and migrant worker population.
Tibet and Xinjiang were the only regions where births exceeded deaths, reflecting younger populations and higher fertility rates among ethnic minority groups.
Economic Implications
The working-age population (15-64) fell by 7.2 million to 961 million, the fifth consecutive annual decline. Goldman Sachs projected that China's labor force would contract by 100 million workers by 2040, creating structural headwinds for manufacturing and construction sectors that remain labor-intensive.
Pension system sustainability is an escalating concern. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimated that the urban employee pension fund would be depleted by 2035 without reform. The State Council announced in December 2025 a phased increase in the retirement age from 60 to 63 for men and from 55 to 58 for women, to be implemented over 15 years beginning in 2026.
Policy Measures
The State Council expanded pro-natalist incentives, including a one-time cash bonus of 20,000 yuan ($2,800) for the second child and 30,000 yuan for the third, along with subsidized childcare, extended parental leave, and tax deductions for families. Local governments in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Sichuan added supplementary benefits worth an additional 10,000-50,000 yuan per child.
Despite these measures, surveys by the China Population Association found that 78% of women aged 20-35 said financial pressure was the primary reason for not having children, followed by career concerns (64%) and housing costs (58%). Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said China's birth rate decline was "structural, not cyclical" and that "no country has reversed a sub-replacement fertility rate once it falls below 1.3."
