Japan's Population Falls Below 122 Million for First Time
Japan's population fell below 122 million with a record annual decline of 830,000, as the share of residents aged 65 and older crossed 30% for the first time in any nation.
Census Data Confirms Accelerating Demographic Decline
Japan's population dropped below 122 million as of October 1, 2025, according to preliminary data released by the Statistics Bureau on October 19. The figure of 121.87 million represents a decline of 830,000 from the previous year, the largest single-year decrease on record and a sharp acceleration from the 620,000 drop recorded in 2024.
The proportion of residents aged 65 and older reached 30.2%, the first time any nation has crossed the 30% threshold. Meanwhile, the population aged 14 and under fell to 11.1%, a record low that underscores the severity of Japan's fertility crisis.
Regional Disparities Widen
Tokyo was the only prefecture to register population growth, adding 48,000 residents through domestic migration. Akita prefecture recorded the steepest decline at 2.1%, followed by Aomori at 1.9% and Iwate at 1.8%. Rural depopulation has left 900 municipalities — roughly half of Japan's total — classified as "depopulation zones" eligible for special government subsidies.
Hiroshi Yoshida, a demographer at Tohoku University, said the data confirmed Japan was "20 years ahead of where South Korea and China will be." He warned that without dramatic policy changes, the population would fall below 100 million by 2048.
Economic Implications
The labor force participation rate among those aged 65-69 rose to 52.8%, the highest in the OECD. Major employers including Toyota, Hitachi, and NTT have raised mandatory retirement ages to 70 or eliminated them altogether. The Bank of Japan estimated that labor shortages would reduce potential GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points annually through 2030.
Immigration has partially offset the decline, with net foreign worker arrivals reaching 250,000 in fiscal year 2025, up from 175,000 in 2023. The government's revised Specified Skilled Worker program now covers 16 industrial sectors, up from the original 14.
Policy Response
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced a supplementary budget of 3.5 trillion yen ($23 billion) for childcare subsidies, housing assistance for young families, and expanded parental leave benefits. The measures include a monthly child allowance increase from 15,000 yen to 30,000 yen for the third child and beyond.
The Cabinet Office projects that the total fertility rate, which fell to 1.15 in 2024, would need to rise to at least 1.8 to stabilize the population by mid-century — a target most demographers consider unrealistic under current conditions.
